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The Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is dealing with a corruption investigation that has highlighted the nation’s economic vulnerabilities.
On December 28 the Finance Minister Simsek sought to reassure investors. He wrote to his 736,000 followers on Twitter and told them that the markets had largely priced in risk, according to Bloomberg News. Finance Minister Simsek has also stated that, “public support for the ruling party remained strong, so “political stability isn’t at stake.” The country remains heavily dependent on capital inflows, and thus on foreign investors’ confidence.
However, domestic political unrest, recession in the euro zone which is still Turkey’s biggest export market and turmoil in Syria and the region could easily dent that confidence.
“One of Turkey’s prized commodities over the past decade — political stability — has been severely undermined at a particularly inopportune time for emerging markets,” stated Nicholas Spiro, managing director at Spiro Sovereign Strategy, in a report that was emailed in. Mehmet Simsek, the finance minister, insists the economy is more robust than it was a decade ago. Still, the Turkish lira has fallen to its lowest level in 18 months according to Business week.
In an emerging economy, political unrest can have a long-term economic impact. Turkey, the world’s 17th largest economy, has structural economic weaknesses which include an overregulated labor market, high minimum wages, a big unproductive informal sector, low female participation in the workforce and poor education.
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Anthony Skinner. who is the head of analysis at Maplecroft – a global risk and strategic consultancy in the UK, reported in an email interview that, “The Turkish economy is vulnerable due to its dependency on borrowed money from abroad and the size of the current-account deficit. There is little to suggest that this crisis will be resolved quickly,” and “investors will continue to seek to sell the Turkish lira,” reported Skinner.
Summary:
Turkish insisted and party calm investors over loss of value in Turkish lira. Analysts see further devaluation and currency fluctuation. Finance ministry supports lira and considers stable Turkish government.
Image Credit: www.businessweek.com
